• Rajib Kumar Jena

Stats help to Prepare well...Facing the Pandemic for Health Care

Updated: Jul 12, 2020

The #activecase numbers are very significant for looking at adequacy of #hospitalbeds

The #doubling of active cases is trending with increased #leadtime.

It has been improving from 11 days to 18 days to currently trending at 30 days.

By end of June it may be 50 days & by end of July it may be 90 days. Deduced by expecting a certain higher rate of recovery percentage.

My guess is by September end we might be seeing #downward #trend, ie,#reduction in active cases.

Means, by June end we will have 1.9 lakh active, by July end 3 lakh active and by August end it may be 3.5 lakh active

This means that we need to #rampup our hospital beds accordingly.

The #distribution across the #country has to be based on respective #states #infections rate increase and #recovery percentage

My #caveat is that, this is just a crude attempt for a #prediction looking at our past #statistics of infections rate and recovery percentage increase.

Of course this will be influenced by the #testing quantity per day. If that gets increased faster than the current rate, the figures will change

Idea was to #pindown a #figure for #preparation.

Hope govt must be having much more accurate #predictions both at #aggregate level and #granular level

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